Beating the Clock to a Playoff Countdown

Editor's Note: This piece went up at 7:55 ET. If you're reading it after the games inevitably went against us, try to understand . . . and be generous.

JW,

Perhaps anticipating a playoff weekend composed largely of Week 17 rematches, I stayed away from the NFL last Sunday. (Yeah, I watched Chris Johnson's run at 2,000 yards, but is it really the NFL if neither team cares about the final score?) As a result, I'm fresh as a daisy--completely ignorant of how things went down and unaffected by Week 17's weirdness. Is Dallas twenty-four points better than Philadelphia? Is Green Bay twenty-six points better than Arizona? Is New York thirty-seven points better than Cincinnati? I have no f-----g idea!

In that spirit, how about a playoff preview based entirely on happenstance and gossip? It's not a better look at this weekend's action, but it's certainly a Smarter one.

New York at Cincinnati

As I mentioned on Tuesday, I learned nothing about the New York Jets this season. Nevertheless, they led the league with 2,756 rushing yards in my absence, carrying the ball more than six hundred times (compared to fewer than four hundred passes--the fewest in the league) and relying heavily on the ageless (but AARP-eligible) Thomas Jones. On the other side of the ball, the Jets gave up fewer than one hundred yards per game on the ground (8th place league-wide) and almost five hundred fewer yards through the air than second-best Buffalo. If this game were being played in 1970, when running the ball and stopping the run actually did win championships, the Jets would absolutely demolish the Bengals. As it stands, I like them winning closely when Cincinnati's two-minute drill fails. And forget the curse of the rookie quarterback on the road. Everything about the Jets' play this season suggests that they will not allow Mark Sanchez to lose this game for them.

Eagles at Cowboys

Both of these teams want badly to choke--Dallas for historical reasons and Philadelphia to satisfy Donovan McNabb's yearnings to leave behind the least satisfied fan base in the history of Hall of Fame careers. Can this game end with both quarterbacks and coaches being burned in effigy? Does the NFL postseason have ties? If not, look for Dallas to win the battle of the trenches and upset Andy Reid's perfect record (!) in the first round of the playoffs. I like the fact that Philadelphia scores on big plays. I dislike the fact that they can only score on big plays. Dallas, your choke will probably have to wait until round two.

Baltimore at New England

After last year's travesty of a win in Tennessee, Baltimore deserves to be screwed out of this win. Who better to take it from them than a coach who cheats! New England has had one of the strangest season's in recent NFL history--absolutely destroying Atlanta, Tennessee, and Jacksonville, but losing to Denver, Miami, and Houston in games where a little more heart would have gotten it done. I have no idea what to make of this Patriots team. Why couldn't they get hot and win the Super Bowl? Why couldn't they lose this game by thirty? The only thing I know for sure is that if Julian Edelman fills Welker's shoes without missing a beat, the Pats' locker room needs to be examined for witchcraft. Will no injury derail this franchise? Is their system really that perfect? I say no. In fact, I'm picking the upset. Baltimore blitzes its way to a win, followed by Roger Goodell and Tom Brady filing civil suit and winning rights to Ray Lewis' dance. It was only a matter of time.

Green Bay at Arizona

The ultimate finesse game is also the hardest game to call. Every sign points to a big Green Bay win, but Arizona's level of play can absolutely not be predicted. My feeling is that the Cardinals' best game beats the Packers' best, but who knows whether or not they'll bring it. What I am sure of is that running backs and punters need not suit up for this one. Sounds like a can't-miss to me.

-GM

GM,

Since I can't argue with or add to anything you're saying, I'll just spout out some thoughts that come to my mind in order of their arrival. Then I'll direct my attention to last night's national title game, which you, perhaps rightfully if we're just speaking of the game itself, failed to mention.

- As you alluded to, Andy Reid is 7-0 in opening playoff games! Quite an amazing stat, but he's also 1-4 in conference championship games. Then again, so was Bill Cowher before winning it all. This proves that owners should tolerate coaches who consistently win, even if they don't win the big one.

- Not being reported at all is that Bill Belichick is 6-0 in playoff openers.

- The Jets/Bengals game may be the hardest to predict, but the winner will definitely lose to the Colts or Chargers in the second round--magnificently.

- Tony Romo has never won a playoff game. Wade Phillips has never won a playoff game. Today is the 10th anniversary of the Music City Miracle. The Bills' coach: Wade himself.

- The Packers aren't 26 points better than the Cardinals, but they are better. I disagree with your assumption that Arizona at its best beats Green Bay at its, mainly because a completely-clicking Packers team looks better to me than every team but a completely-clicking New Orleans, which, by the way, is long dead.

- ESPN's Chris Mortensen just said he expects Pete Carroll to be the Seahawks' coach by early next week! Whoah.

College football managed to deny us its only totally meaningful game of the year last night. We all assumed Alabama was better than Texas, so the game was billed as Colt McCoy vs. Alabama. Could the face of the Longhorns since Vince Young's departure manage to pull an upset over the team that clearly had the best season up to that point? Thanks to a fluky, seemingly mild injury, we didn't get to see it. And it's not fair to anyone. Not to Alabama, which, despite probably being the better team anyway, will now have a huge shadow cast over its 13th national championship. Not to Texas, which was denied a fair shake. Not to the fans, who had to make themselves believe that it was fair--or at least most fair--that Texas played in the game over Cincinnati, TCU, or Boise State.

Most of all, it wasn't fair to Nick Saban. He didn't deserve that kind of cushy treatment. The same joyless bastard who screwed my Dolphins managed to have the worst coaching performance in big-game history and still win. He tried a shamefully bad fake punt that his defense bailed him out of, and he turned around and asked the same defense to protect an 18-point halftime lead while shutting down the offense. Then, despite enjoying better weather than 98 percent of the country, he acted like his Gatorade bath would kill him right there on the sideline. The post-game press conference reeked of more austerity, as we watched Saban impersonate his mentor, Bill Belichick, as if acting like an ass at season's end would still provide some sort of psychological advantage. His straw hat is Belichick's scissored hoody. "You think this looks stupid? F--k you, world. I'm a champion."

-JW