Four Games, Two Disagreements

JW,

After a wild-card round about as exciting as an afternoon with C-SPAN, I'd like to tell you that this weekend is going to be playoff gold. Sadly, the AFC doesn't look like it's going to oblige. Over the course of the past week, we've heard lots of "experts" claim that the Jets and Ravens have a chance to make things interesting, but it just isn't so. People, it seems, will say anything to get on TV.

With that in mind, let's take a Smarter look at a divisional round that promises to be a study in contrasts. We'll start with the good stuff.

Arizona at New Orleans

I'll be damned if the Cardinals didn't steal my bitching-about-the-overtime-rules thunder last weekend by making their one defensive play of the game when it counted most. Watching that play unfold, I found myself wondering if Aaron Rodgers had suddenly lost his peripheral vision. Michael Adams was maneuvering about as quickly as a Wal-Mart greeter, and he still got there with time to spare. Is it possible that Rodgers' small-town values had him rooting for one more week of Kurt Warner?

Pagan New Orleans, it's safe to say, will have no such qualms about ending the Holy One's career, at least until his August comeback. Like the Green Bay game, however, this one simply can't be called. Both teams score big; both trot out defenses that couldn't stop a Big-10 quarterback; both depend on timing, momentum, and finesse. The game will come down to one or two huge stops or giveaways, and we'll all go home convinced that running the football couldn't be less important. I give Arizona the slight edge, but only because I know their offense is clicking. I'm not positive about the Saints'.

Dallas at Minnesota

Dallas could go one of two ways now that their playoff curse has been lifted. In scenario one, they fall to a Vikings team that, unlike them, isn't just happy to be here. In scenario two, they destroy everyone and win the Super Bowl without much of an effort. I like scenario two.

Minnesota, after all, has proven time and again that Brett Favre alone is going to win or lose big games, and I love him to lose this one. Adrian Peterson--24th in the league in yards per carry and entering famous-for-being-famous territory--lacks the will and charisma to demand the ball, and Dallas has slammed the door shut on runners all season. Look for Favre to panic and overreact to an early deficit. I say his interception total beats Peterson's number of goal-line carries.

Baltimore at Indianapolis

I hate the Colts very much, but even I have to admit that this is a great team. Yeah, they stubbornly lose their rhythm and momentum every December to protect their starters, but it takes a better team than the overachieving Ravens to exploit that fact. I'm predicting an early Ravens lead followed by thirty-five unanswered points by Manning and his joyles, workaday Colts. The Ravens beat a New England team that verifiably stinks. No one cares.

New York at San Diego

If New York seriously challenges in this game, I will s--t myself.

-GM

GM,

Allow me to respond.

Cards at Saints

The Saints are strangers to me, while the Cardinals remind me of a girl I once dated. Entirely unpredictable. Hot one minute; cold the next. Unbearable when at their worst; a thing of beauty when at their best. The problem with this type of girl (errr, team) is she absolutely cannot be counted on when the stakes are high. Are these stakes high enough? Probably, but...

New Orleans has managed to turn everyone into doubters based on its performance in December and beyond. Since a November 30 thrashing of New England, which the Saints would like to be the season's defining moment, they've sneaked by Washington in OT, held on to a three-point victory over a beat-up Atlanta team, allowed a soul-searching Dallas to revive itself while ending their perfect season, lost to three-win Tampa Bay, and failed to try against Carolina. What the Saints may still have is an ability to strike quickly, especially in the fourth quarter, but Arizona can respond. The over-under for this game is 57.5! I know that defenses tend to rise to the occasion when people predict shootouts, but it just seems impossible to me that the winner of this doesn't score 45 by itself! I can't believe I'm saying this, especially since I didn't think Arizona could beat Green Bay, but the Cardinals are pulling this upset even without Boldin.

Cowboys and Vikings

Vike me. (ESPN may have sold out to affirmative action and "jockocracy"--Howard Cosell's version, not what Urban Dictionary has--but it still makes great SportsCenter commercials.) GM, Favre's twilight years, depending on when you assume they began, have consisted of his throwing single, crucial late-game picks rather than littering the field with floaters into triple coverage. But he's not ready for that, anyway. The Vikings are the only team in the league with more momentum right now than Dallas, and it's all because of Week 17. After losing a heart-breaker in Chicago in which Favre and Childress again butted heads and Minnesota looked like it had lost its first-round bye, they were completely in the dumps. But in the season's final week, Philly gift-wrapped the bye in purple and gold and mailed it first-class to Minneapolis. That team is rejuvenated like no other. Of all the key playoff figures who needed a week of rest, Brett Favre was at the top of the list. They're still the most balanced team in football, and if Brad Childress simply overcomes his stubbornness and uses Adrian Peterson more like a 2002 Charlie Garner and less like a 2007 Larry Johnson, Minnesota wins. Oh, and I'm not making this up: I dreamed last night that Flozell Adams false started.

Ravens at Colts

I'll never forgive this Colts team for forfeiting the perfect season. In 2007, Bill Belichick wanted to piss off division rival Miami by going undefeated, and he wanted to piss off Peyton Manning by having Tom Brady take his touchdown record. I hate the Hoody with a passion, but if I could put that hatred aside, I'd want him coaching my team in a heartbeat. Jim Caldwell had the chance to have a season in which he made history by going 19-0 (as a first-year head coach!), to solidify the Colts' reputation as the most clutch franchise in the league, and to make Belichick look stupid for that fourth-down decision. And if he really believes that a Super Bowl victory is the only relevant part of that equation, he doesn't understand greatness. Who will people remember more, the 2007 Patriots or the 2008 Steelers? It's obvious, isn't it? Just as obvious is that this year's Colts team won't be remembered at all. After all, they're following their proven formula to lose a playoff game at home.

Jets at Chargers

I love Rex Ryan. There, I said it. I also think Norv Turner is a waste of space. Unfortunately, there is no reason to believe the Jets will win today. None. Convincing someone otherwise would be a more daunting task than convincing him to switch to AT&T using Luke Wilson commercials.
-JW