Friday, August 28, 2009

NFC North Preview: Leading the League (In Picks)

JW,

While the AFC South and NFC East may produce more wins over the coming season, no division in professional football promises to be as compulsively watchable as the NFC North. And it's not just Favre (who we've written about here and here). Indeed, a whole host of plotlines are waiting to fill my Sunday Ticket. Let's take them one at a time.

Can the Bears compete for a Superbowl now that Cutler's on board?

At first glance, the answer has to be yes. After all, conventional wisdom suggests that the Bears have been a decent quarterback away from victory for several decades. Kyle Orton clearly sucks, and Cutler clearly doesn't. Now that #6 has arrived, the Bears' stellar defense will get a break for more than four plays at a time, and an offense that includes Matt Forte and Devin Hester as well as Cutler will carry its share of the load.

Sadly (and this may shock you), Chicago's defense isn't that stellar, ranking 21st in yards allowed last season and 30th (!) against the pass. Furthermore, Cutler had a ton of yards last season because he threw a ton of passes--only Drew Brees threw more. And while Cutler might seem less likely than Orton to choke games away, keep in mind that Orton threw approximately one interception in every 39 passing attempts. Cutler threw one in every 34, and only Favre had more picks over the course of the season. Throw in the fact that Forte has proven nothing in the way of long-term viability, and you've got a team that's seemingly perfect for underachieving. Will I be watching this Bears team constantly? You better believe it. Will I be gambling on them? Not bloody likely.

Will Vikings at Packers on November 1st live up to expectations?

I'll be honest: Nothing but Brett Favre's decapitated head replacing the football would satisfy me at this point. After all, you have to go back a number of years to find this level of betrayal, and if ever an ass-kicking were richly deserved, it's now.

Sadly, unless I've completely misjudged the Aaron Rodgers-era Pack, they're not up to the task of delivering it. Favre, I fully expect you to ceremonially retire as a Packer, but don't be fooled. You may not have your country back.

Will Detroit go 0-32?

It's entirely, joyously possible! A quick glance at their 2009 schedule reveals 16 very losable games, and given the fact that they're almost certain to have a bad bye-week of practice, I say we count that as a loss, too.

Their best chance for a win is almost certainly their November 1st hosting of St. Louis, a franchise almost (but not quite) as po-faced and insignificant. Lose here and a second 0-16 is very much within reach. Let's hope this game's not airing simultaneously with Vikes vs. Pack. I might have to add a second television!

-GM

GM,

If you didn't have to look up Jay Cutler's jersey number, I'm impressed or ashamed--but nowhere in-between. Speaking of shame, it's the feeling I got when clicking that second Sergeant Slaughter link. The first one had me in tears. The second had me praying that I wasn't one of those children. Before I get to the NFC North, I'd like to touch on Michael Vick's first game back last night. No one I've heard from seems to be admitting it, but Vick's option run showed me that he's lost a step and can only be used as a decoy or shovel passer. And McNabb clearly doesn't care for him. That's a feud waiting to happen. Now to the matter at hand, I have my own questions.

Will Favre's teammates continue to resent him throughout the season as he spoils gorgeous Adrian Peterson drives with ill-advised passes and selfishness, only to deny such reports until the Vikings' season ends in a tough-to-swallow playoff loss?

You better believe it. The locker room issues in Minnesota shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone. When Favre decided in July to stay retired, several Vikings went on record to say they would no longer welcome him as a teammate. The general consensus was, "Once we start training camp, that's the team." He comes back three weeks later, and everyone expects things to be rosy? I'd be madder than I was this morning when I saw that NFL.com had changed its longstanding game recap format!

Will the NFC North lead the NFL in interceptions thrown this season?

Do I even have to ask? As you mentioned, Cutler and Favre are INT-happy, and Matthew Stafford is a rookie on a horrible team. This leads me to my next question...

Is A-Rod the best QB in the division despite being regarded as the third-best?

Definitely. His competition is an old guy, a new guy, and a guy who hasn't won since high school. A-Rod (yes, I'm sticking with it) threw for 4,038 yards, 28 touchdowns, and only 13 interceptions in his first year as a starter. Compare those numbers to Peyton Manning's (the MVP!) season of 4,002 yards, 27 TDs, and 12 INTs. His 93.8 QB rating was higher than first-year ratings for Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Phillip Rivers, Donovan McNabb, Calson Palmer, and, well, any quarterback in the NFL. Hell, I've convinced myself! I think the Packers have an exceptional chance of stealing the division.

-JW

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

AFC North Preview: Big Ben! (and 211 other guys)

GM,

If ever a division should be identified by its quarterbacks, it's the AFC North this year. Four youngsters with four distinct stories and pedigrees will try to guide their respective teams to the glory of a 10-6, division-winning season. Come mid-season, these signal callers will be writing letters home all the way from an AFC West city.

Mom,

Can't wait to come home for Thanksgiving. Oakland is rough, and I'm ready to get back to the Midwest, where my passer rating still exceeds the temperature. The 2-7 start was bad enough, but losing to the Raiders tomorrow will embarrass me to no end. I can hear Chad tweeting, and we're not even roommates! Kiss my Heisman for me.

Carson (Nov. 21)


Mom,

I got to meet Brett Favre last week! Don't worry; we'll do better against the Broncos tomorrow. Braylon's seven Week-1 drops mean he's due for a big game! With Denver's defense, I should be able to keep my job until next week. If I get cut, Jamal said he's willing to place the drug orders as long as I get the business. I'm in good hands.

Brady (Sept. 19)


Mom,

For the last time, I did pay the hush money! She had no right to go to the authorities! Don't put the rings on ebay just yet.

Benjamin (Nov. 21)


Dad,

Can I borrow your tweezers? Ed and Ray are giving me more s--t about the uni-brow. Johnny Damon grows his beard out for an entire season, and they expect me to have two distinct eyebrows in January?! I'm not allowed to play against Oakland tomorrow. Who would have thought we'd have clinched with a week to spare?! Can't wait to host the wildcard team that has two more wins than us!

Joe (Jan. 2)


-JW

JW,

Here, presented as they occurred, are the thoughts that came to me as I pondered this season's AFC North:

Omar Epps, Big Ben, Flacco will suck, Big Ben, Cleveland will suck, Ray Lewis killed a guy, Ray Lewis will suck, Big Ben, Cincinnati shouldn't have a team, Cincinnati will suck, Big Ben.

As you can see, I'm quite excited. Also, the phrase "Big Ben" has been uttered a lot on football broadcasts. But that's a complaint for another day.

Today, I'm happy to complain about the fact that you have the Ravens winning the division at 10-6. After all, doesn't Pittsburgh get some benefit of the doubt for going 12-4 last year, winning the Super Bowl, and bringing everyone back? I know they're one of those annoying, San Antonio Spurs-style everything-done-right franchises, but isn't that the point? Can't we pencil them in for a boring division win now?

Personally, I'm more intrigued by the possibility of Cleveland and Cincinnati joining forces with the Big Ten's BCS chances to put the final nail in the state of Ohio's football coffin. We're unlikely to see more than four combined wins for the Browns and Bengals this season, and given the fact that neighboring Pennsylvania is in many ways the epicenter of the NFL universe right now, I'm anticipating some mass suicides in the Buckeye State.

My other prediction is a #2 seed for the Steelers going into the playoffs and a narrow wild card miss for the Ravens. And good riddance. After last year's travesty of a win over the Titans, I'm ready for this team to go away for a while.

-GM

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

NFC East Preview: Slightly Worse Than Anticipated

JW,

After yesterday's stinker--as always, the AFC East forgot its courtesy flush--I'm ready to head across town to the NFC. Here's an interesting question, by the way. Which region will have the biggest win-total discrepancy, AFC vs. NFC? A quick glance at schedules reveals that the East might well take it this year.

After all, this is a gritty, tough, hard-football division. Mind you, I hate all of these teams, but even I've got to admit that there are three Super Bowl contenders here.

Take the New York Giants, for example, who somehow managed to parlay sticking with a quarterback too long into winning it all. (Note to Chiefs fans still holding on to Brodie Croyle: This rarely works.) The Giants have a terrific red-zone running game, an obnoxious fan base making life miserable for their opponents, and lingering karma from the damnedest piece of luck I've seen since O. J. Simpson was born black. What's not to like?

Or consider the Dallas Cowboys, whose dismissal of Terrell Owens ranks with Hillary Clinton's move from dresses to pantsuits as one of the great decisions in history. I see the Cowboys firing Wade Phillips after a 3-4 start, reeling off 9 straight wins with Mike Shanahan at the helm, and scaring the hell out of everyone in the first round of the playoffs. In fact, lock it down. It's definitely happening.

And what about the Philadelphia Eagles, whose signing of Michael Vick immediately vaulted them to villain status unseen since the 1972 Soviet basketball team? Can't you just see Michael Vick making a clutch play or two in January, followed by Donovan McNabb murdering him in cold blood? I know I can! Throw in the fact that teams I hate always do well, and they're practically a lock for a deep postseason run.

Which leaves us with the Washington Redskins, further proof that our founding fathers were geniuses to deny the District of Columbia congressional representation. Like the Houston Texans, the Chicago Cubs, and the American summer movie lineup, the Skins are always supposed to be good this year. I don't know about you, but I'm sick and tired of waiting.

-GM

GM,

Did you see Mark Sanchez solidify his role as Jets starter? His first two passes--one of which was intercepted for a touchdown while the other should have been--made this look like acceptable quarterback play. That said, I see the NFC East--ESPN's long-proclaimed "best division in sports, life, and the cosmic realm forever and ever no matter what you say, period"--shaping out like this.

Washington Redskins (last place): I don't know who's been in your ear this season, GM, but no one outside of D.C. expects the 'skins to make any noise. Sure, they make a playoff appearance every now and then and often have a roster full of talent, but you can't trust them any more than Chief Zee should have trusted Andrew Jackson.

Dallas Cowboys (third place): When spending $1.15 billion on a new stadium, one should hire a crew with research capabilities thorough enough to account for the height of a punt. Some folks say Jerry Jones is no longer concerned with winning, only with ticket sales, but the release of a certain Hall of Fame lock at receiver has me wondering if either is a priority. I could see the Week 6 injury report including "Jason Witten (chronic fatigue syndrome)" because being Tony Romo's main squeeze can really take its toll. I can't think of a reason this team should be any better this year. As much as teams hate T.O., they don't get any better when he leaves.

New York Giants (second place): With a top-15 receiver locked up and a decent QB not having to play for a big contract anymore, the only question is, "How many guys can Brandon Jacobs run through before he's out of gas?" Answer: not enough.

Philadelphia Eagles (division champs): The Vick acquisition aside, this team should be able to keep some of the momentum it gathered at the end of last year. A fierce defense, an established quarterback, a gifted running back, an underrated wide receiving corps, and an experienced head coach will be enough to go 11-5 in what I think will just be an average division this season. Please don't tell Trey Wingo I said that.

-JW

Monday, August 24, 2009

AFC East Preview: Coke Money in the Bank

GM,

I, for one, have never been so excited about an upcoming NFL season in which my team will definitely not make the playoffs. I'm going to gamble relentlessly. I'm going to frequent that site you introduced me to that allows you to watch any live game for free. I love my fantasy team, which is also tied into gambling. I have some legitimate hope that Tom Brady will never be the same. I get to cling to my youth a little more by watching Brett Favre play in the NFC North. Finally, I'll be faithfully watching Terrell Owens play with the worst starting quarterback in pro football. Life is good. Time for a preview--the first of many.

AFC East

Buffalo Bills: Meet Trent Edwards. He's not what you'd call an NFL-caliber quarterback. Meet Terrell Owens. He's not what you'd call a stable individual. How much more can I say? This should be interesting. T.O. has made every quarterback he's played with look good, at least for a while. If Edwards goes to the Pro Bowl, I'm willing to label Owens the greatest receiver of all time. Side story: I recently met a guy from T.O.'s hometown of Alexander City, Ala. He said nobody there likes him either.

Miami Dolphins: There was really no reason the Dolphins should have won 11 games last year except for an amazingly easy schedule. They played the AFC West and the NFC West, plus they got the Patriots in Matt Cassell's second start and managed to clinch the division against a free-falling Jets team in Week 17. Now, these are my Dolphins, so I'm not about to bet the under on the seven-game win total that Vegas predicts. Let's just say I wouldn't encourage anyone to bet the over, though.

New York Jets: New coach. New quarterback. Old running back. Old story. These Jets will lose twice to the Patriots, once to each of the other divisional opponents, and six times to the rest of the league--assuming they overachieve.

New England Patriots: Replace one system quarterback with another, and your team should be just fine. This team is an obvious lock. I know, I know. After Cassell put up better numbers in his first year as a starter than Tom Brady put up in his, everyone started panicking when they decided to trade him. "Oh no! What are we going to do without our franchise QB?! He was amazing last year!" Don't worry, folks. It's called a system. This Brady guy, whoever he is, should also be able to succeed in it.

-JW

JW,

A recent study found that 90% of American money has been rolled up and used to snort cocaine. What does this have to do with the AFC East, you ask? Well, let's just say that if the New England Patriots represent the American drug trade, then Buffalo, Miami, and New York represent the war on drugs. Yes, the Bills, Fins, and Jets may occasionally annoy the Patriots, but they're not stopping them. Frankly, they're not coming close.

To that drug metaphor, let me add this one. Considering the fact that not only ones and fives but hundreds have been used to do coke, according to the above story, we're clearly living in a world of haves and have nots. With that in mind, here's my "Coke-Snorting AFC East Preview" (all rights reserved):

The One Hundred Dollar Bill Coke Snorter

The New England Patriots, whose "system" has resulted in one of the most successful runs in the history of professional football. Sure, Brady may take a step back this year, but it's a Montana to Young step, nothing more. I mean, check out the guy's schedule! Other than Peyton Manning in week ten and Drew Brees in week twelve, he'd be the best quarterback on the field every time out if he were Damon Huard! Talk about a rogues' gallery. Honestly, I haven't seen a collection of losers this pitiful since the 2000-2007 Miami Dolphins.

Speaking of which . . .

The Twenty Dollar Bill Coke Snorter

The Dolphins aren't going to make the playoffs this year, but they're not going to be terrible, either. In fact, I'm pencilling them in for 8-8 for the rest of my life. As you know, I blame the Dolphins for introducing the term "wildcat" into what was until then a pretty good life for me. Now? I've decided that hell consists of a never-ending sound-loop of "Brett Favre" and "wildcat" repeated over and over in Ron Jaworski's voice. In all seriousness, look for Pennington to have another underrated season, followed by Bill Parcells jettisoning him for the freshly-available Alex Smith. And then look for the pieces of your exploded head.

The Five Dollar Bill Coke Snorter

The Buffalo Bills, though only because Terrell Owens' corpse is more liability than blessing at this point. I like this team a lot, but I'll sum up my feelings about Owens' remaining football abilities by saying this: If a fire has you trapped in an upstairs room and Terrell Owens invites you to toss down your baby, DO NOT TOSS HIM THE BABY.

The One Dollar Bill Coke Snorter

The New York Jets, though only because you can't snort coke through a fifty-cent piece. Wow, this team is going to be terrible. I've got the DirecTV NFL Sunday Ticket this season, and if the Jets make an appearance in my home, feel free to kill me. I'll watch the Russian ballet first.

-GM

Friday, August 21, 2009

A Rigged Game

GM,

ESPN reported yesterday that Plaxico Burress was sentenced to two years in prison for shooting himself in the leg. Was that part of the plea bargain?! "Plax, they've just got too much on us. We can go to court, and you will be found guilty of carrying an unlicensed concealed weapon. You could, however, shave off a few years in jail by admitting that your idiocy, not your criminality, has brought on this punishment." I thought two years was too much for packing heat without a license, but apparently New York won't even let you shoot yourself!

Enough dwelling on poorly worded reporting. Two hammers were dropped yesterday, and neither served justice. Plaxico, like every other NFL thug who can't wait to hang out in bars where people want to exploit him or extort from him, took a firearm into a bar. In his case, however, he must have thought his Florida permit was universally accepted (or was just too careless to apply in New York), and he happened to shoot himself. Wouldn't a prolonged period of probation accompanied by a forced forfeiture of all weapons be more appropriate? Legal cases often have rulings that clearly aren't fair. Sure, they may fit in with rules and precedents, but anyone with common sense recognizes a shockingly unfair decision. Plax was certainly irresponsible, but it's a shame that a guy who probably wasn't any threat to society will have to spend two of his playing years in prison.

As for the NCAA's rulling on the University of Memphis basketball program, they failed to catch the two biggest criminals. Derrick Rose, who was living in Chicago, let some kid in Detroit (!) take the SAT for him. Based on his past, we can assume John Calipari's level of involvement ranges from having prior knowledge to actually filling in the bubbles in the test booklet. Both of these guys are doing extremely well financially, and one is still in the NCAA! I can understand having no authority to punish Rose, but how is it possible that the NCAA continues to allow coaches to benefit from their infractions simply because they were able to whore themselves out in time? Memphis has to give back a lot of money; the culprits continue to rake it in. I know two guys who the Tiger athletic department should instantly hit up for donations.

-JW

JW,

If nothing else, recent history shows us that justice in this country is a matter of extremes. Sure, fame can buy an acquittal, but it leads just as easily to example-making, certainly the most feared of all celebrity side-effects.

Such was the case yesterday, when Plaxico Burress pleaded guilty to a weapons charge that a fifty-year-old white guy would have laughed at. While I'm not particularly sad to see Plax behind bars, there's something disturbing about a justice system in which punishment is allotted based on factors so far removed from the crime itself. Consider Michael Vick, whose prison time would almost certainly have been shortened had his fame not engendered a political firestorm. Or Donte Stallworth, who essentially bought himself a 30-day sentence for killing a guy--paying the family to approve his plea bargain.

Part of the problem, I know, is that while Stallworth looks like a normal person, Plaxico Burress and Michael Vick look crazy-eyed and malevolent. In punishing them, we're throwing in all the s--t we know they've gotten away with. Perhaps just as problematic, though, is the wide latitude of prosecutors, whose political ambitions are generally no secret. In the case of Plax, Manhattan district attorney Robert Morgenthau's public promise of jail time is merely the political equivalent of the shivving that Burress can expect next week at Riker's Island--just a guy trying to buy some cred.

Meanwhile, the NCAA's search for perfect justice remains similarly flawed. You make an interesting case about Rose and Calipari, but I'll argue, as I have before, that, money aside, Memphis is receiving no punishment. Yes, the national media will have their (at least partly racially-motivated) field day at the Tigers' expense, but recruiting will go on and the fans' memories will remain largely unscathed. We won those games, and everybody knows it.

A final note: Striking the record books is not just stupid but counterproductive. I've heard Memphis' expunged 1985 Final Four appearance mentioned dozens of times over the past month or so; I've heard about St. John's legitimate appearance exactly zero times. And I don't expect that ratio to change.

-GM