Tips and Picks: The Week 3 Edition

GM,

I hope you've saved all your yardwork for this Saturday. The NCAA is throwing us a collection of stinkers so miserable that I'm considering alternative programming. Really, these games are rotten to the core. Last night, we saw South Carolina upset Ole Miss, which I had predicted but didn't even profit from because Vegas also smelled a rat and didn't offer decent odds. How often does a No. 4 team visit an unranked team and only give 4.5 points?! I've now gone from ripping Jevan Snead to feeling sorry for him. At this rate, he won't get drafted.

Only one of this week's games--Miami at Virginia Tech--pairs two top-25 teams. This makes gambling difficult, perhaps even less fun, but what's a boy to do?

No. 9 Miami (-3) at No. 11 Virginia Tech:

Again, the oddsmakers tend to agree with me about Miami's ability. How could the home team not be favored in this one?! On the other hand, the Hurricanes have been playing great football, and Jacory Harris made me a believer in that convincing win over Georgia Tech. I loved this Miami team on Monday, so I have to love them today. Take the 'Canes to cover.

Texas Tech (+1) at No. 17 Houston; Over-under is 73.5:

Easily billed (by me) as the second-most entertaining game this week, this is Houston's chance to prove it's for real. With an almost-even line, an over-under of 73.5, a potential BCS buster on the field, and a 9:15 kickoff, you must find some action on this one. With the late start in mind, plan to turn to your drunkest buddy and tell him you want the over at 60. It might work. You can't tell anything from watching highlights of these two teams. The defenses look terrible, and the offense looks unchallenged. If you're not brave enough to take the over, go with the Red Raiders. Houston only has two more challenges on its way to what I now hope will be a national title game against Boise State. The other is Mississippi State. I say the exposure comes now.

Notre Dame (-7) at Purdue:

Take Purdue to win outright. I give it a 40-percent chance, and you'll get 2.25 times your investment if it does. Now that's value!

Arizona State (+11.5) at No. 21 Georgia; Over-under is 50.5:

I'll be at this one, and I have no idea why they put the over-under so low. UGA is averaging 34 a game and allowing the same number ("amount" for the less educated). Like all Pac 10 teams in recent memory, the Sun Devils can put up some points and allow some. With student bodies that consistently rank in the top 10 for girls and partying, neither school has time for wrapping up, getting off blocks, or batting down passes. Take the over, and take it with as much "confidence" as your wallet will allow.

-JW

JW,

If you had asked me during the fourth quarter of last night's Ole Miss-South Carolina game whether or not the Rebels would shed their 13-point deficit for a last-minute win, my answer would have been an enthusiastic yes. As in, mortgage-the-house yes. Visit-the-pawnshop yes. Dexter McCluster couldn't be stopped, Jevan Snead had taken his rightful place in the Jonathan Crompton School of Sucking Too Badly to Risk a Pass, and Stephen Garcia looked about as competent as a freshman walk-on. At a junior college. With no football team. Clearly, Sports Illustrated knew what they were doing when they released this beauty. It takes a truly special team to blow a game that winnable.

Which is not to say, mind you, that Ole Miss didn't deserve the loss. It's just that I can't remember the last time a team rose so high on so little. Fans used to college football's incestuous seasoning of regular season rankings with preseason expectations have seen scores of lesser examples (Georgia in 2008; USC in every year since its founding), but something about the Rebels' 2009 hype was particularly ridiculous. This was the 4th best team in the country? Given Snead's numbers and bizarre interaction with Houston Nutt during drives (repeatedly yelling at his coaches to "speed things up," according to reports), last night's Rebs would have been hard pressed to be the 40th best. The fact that I expected them to pull out the win anyway is proof only that South Carolina isn't quite ready to win those games. Not that Ole Miss is.

As we look ahead to this weekend's NFL action, then, I suggest we keep in mind whatever lessons we can draw from the Rebels' misfortune, and the most important among them is this. An overhyped team that's beaten nobody is always susceptible to an underdog that's moving in the right direction. And yes, Minnesota, I'm talking to you. Bank on it.

-GM