JW,
A quick review of our past weeks' work reveals that I haven't exactly been optimistic about most teams' 2009 chances. That's why I'm so excited about this season's AFC South, whose dominance of non-divisional opponents in the coming campaign may well rival the Harlem Globetrotters'. Take a look at their schedules, where the NFC West and AFC East loom about as large as Micro Machines. Other than New England (who you've got to figure one of these teams will find a way to beat), the AFC South could come close to running the table. This is the group, I think it's safe to say, that's going to get screwed by your 6-10, playoff-hosting Chargers.
Indianapolis' success, of course, is pretty much set in stone--they've had 12+ wins for the last six years and show no signs of letting up as long as choking in the first round of the playoffs remains a viable goal. As a friend of mine likes to say, this is finally going to be the season in which Peyton Manning proves himself to be the greatest quarterback of all time at home during the regular season. So what if the Colts' depth chart reveals a running back platoon that a Wheelchair Olympics squad would be ashamed of? These guys'll pass three times as much as they rush, convert every single one of their fourth downs, and annoy the hell out of me September through December. Not a bad season at all.
Where Houston and Jacksonville are concerned, there's also a lot to like. I can't get enough of Steve Slaton and Maurice Jones-Drew, and I'm predicting breakout seasons for both Matt Schaub and David Garrard. More importantly, perhaps, is the fact that both of these teams just feel exciting--particularly the Texans, who could lead the league in offense if Schaub stays healthy. Throw in their inevitable bandwagon and I see them giving somebody a serious run for the wild card slot.
Just don't let that team be the Titans, who are due for some serious revenge after last year's miscarriage of justice against the Ravens. My goodness! A playoff game was ruined by bad officiating! Period. No debate. Why has more not been made of this?
The answer, of course, is that the NFL remains impervious to scandal. Steroids can't hurt it even though they nearly killed baseball. Terrible calls can't bring it to its knees even though mistakes of this magnitude in the NBA would be national sports news for weeks. As a result, the only solution is self-policing, so let's give the Titans some make-up calls the likes of which this game has never seen. A turned-off play clock every fourth quarter. A fifth down every now and then. Seven accidental points.
After what happened in January, nothing else will do.
-GM
GM,
I'm finally ready to admit that I think both of the wildcard teams will come from this division--and that the Texans are my (yes, and everyone else's) sleeper pick to steal one of those wildcard spots. I, unlike you, usually like the Colts and love Peyton Manning like the quarterback I never had this century. Indianapolis is a model of consistency, and there's one driving force--and his dad owns a plantation somewhere in Mississippi.
Tony Dungy's absence will be felt about as much as a punch thrown during a baseball brawl, unlike this, which seems to be getting more pub than an Irishman. With Peyton Manning almost coaching the team--he's been known to overrule Dungy's fourth-down decisions--the Colts just need somebody to shut up and wear a headset, not somebody who actually cares about losses. I see another 12 wins and a division title.
Not since Jerry Krause broke up the Chicago Bulls has a team been expected to take such a free fall after a successful season. Tennessee won 13 games last year and could have won 15 had Jeff Fischer trusted his kicker in Week 15 and played his players in Week 17. The Titans haven't really lost much, and they'll still be physical as hell, yet Vegas expects them to win nine games this year. Nine! Nine is ridiculous. Ten is my prediction.
I like Matt Schaub more than he deserves, and Andre Johnson has secretly been a top-five receiver his entire career! Throw in the fact that Steve Slaton has never failed, and you have a team with 13-win potential as long as the defense can hold opponents to 20 points with any consistency.
Jacksonville will be the whipping boy of the division and perhaps the conference. You and I differ on this team's potential, which is why you'll make me slightly richer come December.
-JW
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